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<HeartPrayer>
Posted
Background:
The benevolent dictator of Pakistan, General Pervez Musharraf, has long been doing his best to perform an delicate balancing act. In recent months he has gradually seemed to be losing his footing.

I am sure it is unnecessary to remind everyone that:

1) Pakistan is a nuclear power, and it was the West who provided them with the technology.
2) Elements in Pakistan played a key role in the Taleban�s gain of power in neighbouring Afghanistan.

Question:
What can -- or should -- be done if there is a likelihood of conservative Muslims ascending to power? And furthermore, who should do it? Should the nuclear arsenal be left intact? If not, what is the wise choice?

Respectfully,
HeartPrayer
 
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<AMH>
Posted
quote:
Pakistan is a nuclear power, and it was the West who provided them with the technology.
This implies that they had tangible assistance from the West, but I am not sure that is true. I think it was part espionage and part assistance from China. Unless you mean that since the US/West developed nuclear weapons first, then it follows that the West helped everyone who currently has nuclear weapons. http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/...stan/nuke/index.html

quote:
Question:
What can -- or should -- be done if there is a likelihood of conservative Muslims ascending to power? And furthermore, who should do it? Should the nuclear arsenal be left intact? If not, what is the wise choice?
The million dollar question!!! (Or the 723,510 EUR or 5,682,400 NOK question).

Maybe we should ask Kristin Halvorsen!

� Norwegian Left Courts Pakistani Vote�

http://www.brusselsjournal.com/node/143
 
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<HeartPrayer>
Posted
Well, I saw a very thorough and convincing report (I believe it was on "60 Minutes") abut the role the West played in Pakistan becoming a nuclear power. It detailed companies involved, and the non-intervention of the Western intelligence community when warned of what was taking place.

Norway has a significant Pakistani minority, and as the article mentions, especially in Oslo.

Yesterday, the party of Kristin Halvorsen, Norway�s current Finance Minister, suffered a significant setback in the municipal and county elections.
Her predecessor in this cabinet job, by the way, was an openly gay representative from the Conservative party. Both of them highly respected. And even the business community believes Halvorsen, a Socialist, has done an excellent job.

So much for digression.

* * *

Back to Pakistan. What are your thoughts?
I am not quite able to read between the lines...

...except I concur that you deserve NOK 5,682,400 if you come up with a particularly brilliant answer. Wink
 
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<HeartPrayer>
Posted
By the way, The Brussels Journal seems to have a very strange tone in some of its other articles. And the adverts are even worse. I happened to click on one of them (for The American Spectator) and was shocked by some of the crackpot stuff I read.

Anyways, back to Pakistan...
 
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<AMH>
Posted
Before I give you my obviously valuable conservopinion:

"Former Pakistani PM Sharif Appeals Expulsion to Saudi Arabia "
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,296385,00.html

quote:
The Supreme Court has emerged as a check on Musharraf's dominance since his failed attempt to sack the country's top judge earlier this year that sparked a nationwide protest movement.

It is already hearing petitions challenging Musharraf's holding of the post of army chief and president simultaneously and his eligibility to contest upcoming presidential elections. It is also pressing the government to provide information about the fate of hundreds of people allegedly held by Pakistan's shadowy intelligence agencies on accusations of terrorism and anti-government activities.

Analysts say Monday's decision to expel Sharif will deepen Musharraf's unpopularity in Pakistan and reinforce impressions that he is an authoritarian leader. It also could undermine the legitimacy of legislative elections due by January 2008.

Ali Ahmed Kurd, a senior member of the Pakistan Bar Council, said lawyers across the country were boycotting court proceedings to protest Sharif's deportation.
 
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<AMH>
Posted
Off thread but -
quote:
By the way, The Brussels Journal seems to have a very strange tone in some of its other articles. And the adverts are even worse. I happened to click on one of them (for The American Spectator) and was shocked by some of the crackpot stuff I read.
The Brussels Journal is one of the few Euro blogs that is actually conservative and generally pro-American. I read it from time to time, and though I don't agree with everything they say, I find it "refreshing".

I also think that it is a reaction to what is cited in this article by Bret Stephens:

http://www.opinionjournal.com/wsj/?id=110008853

quote:
Now take the Vlaams Belang (Flemish Interest), the secessionist Flemish Party previously known as the Vlaams Blok until a court ruled it illegal in 2004. The Blok has longstanding links to Nazi collaborators. One of the party's founding members is Karel Dillen, who in 1951 translated into Flemish a French tract denying the Holocaust (possibly the only French text for which a Vlams Blok party member has ever shown sympathy). For many years, the party's chief selling point was its call to forcibly deport immigrants who failed to assimilate. It also made plain its sympathies with other far-right wing European parties, such as Jean-Marie Le Pen's National Front in France.

But that's changing. Younger party leaders, realizing their anti-Semitic taint was poison, began making pro-Israel overtures. And the party's tough-on-crime, hostile-to-Muslims stance began to attract a considerable share of the Jewish vote, particularly among Orthodox Antwerp Jews who felt increasingly vulnerable in the face of the city's hostile Muslim community. Today, Vlaams Belang is the largest single party in the country.

Then there are the government's actual policies. In April, Belgians were shocked by the murder of a teenager named Joe Van Holsbeeck, who was stabbed to death in Brussels's central train station by two Gypsy youths, at the height of the afternoon rush hour, in broad view of dozens of onlookers. (Apparently, the killers wanted his MP3 player.)

Amid a pervasive and growing sense of lawlessness--Belgium's per capita murder rate, at 9.1 per 100,000 is nearly twice that of the U.S.--the murder became the occasion of much national soul-searching. When Jean-Marie Dedecker, a senator from the ruling Liberal Party, opined in an op-ed that "policemen look the other way in order to avoid being accused of racism," he was rebuked by Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt for "inciting hostilities."
 
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<AMH>
Posted
Back to Pakistan - major issues, with no easy answers. FrontPage Mag had a good symposium on this a while back -

http://frontpagemagazine.com/A...4-AA2E-E879D9EEBFF0}
 
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Pakistan declares State of emergency

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,307857,00.html
 
Posts: 417 | Registered: 17 October 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Posts: 417 | Registered: 17 October 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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"The Second Coup-Pakistan is on the verge of destabilization"

http://www.weeklystandard.com/...000/014/315gqklr.asp

quote:
But again, the rise of the Taliban and al Qaeda in the Northwest Frontier Province was not behind Musharraf's decision to plunge the country into political turmoil. Musharraf's concern first and foremost is to strengthen his own hand in dealing with the secular opposition to his military rule
 
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A short note by VDHanson on the mess in Pakistan:
http://corner.nationalreview.c...MWZiZWM0YTY5YzYzYjU=
 
Posts: 417 | Registered: 17 October 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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This is a very serious situation! If Pakistan goes the way of militant Islam, that would be awful!

Bush urges elections:
- http://www.reuters.com/article...Crisis/idUSN05316345
 
Posts: 7539 | Location: Wichita, KS | Registered: 09 August 2001Reply With QuoteReport This Post
<HeartPrayer>
Posted
Very serious.
And the USA/West seems to be in a double bind here. On the one hand Musharraf may seem the best bet for preventing an Islamic government. On the other, by supporting Musharraf and being so strongly associated with him, the USA/West will reap more ill will from the people, not just in Pakistan, but throughout the region.

Many would argue that if the USA/West is indeed serious about democracy in the Middle East, they would actively oppose Musharraf. We don�t of course, quite the contrary.

Hence there is a serious risk of the West being seen as hypocritical -- we�ll support democracy, as long as a majority of the people don�t insist on electing a government reflecting Islamic values.

This is not an easy one.

Personally I am far more worried about Pakistan than Iran, and have been for some time. I think the whole "Iranian threat" is incredibly over-hyped.
 
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HP, the main problems with Iran have less to do with nukes (right now) than their support of Hezbollah, Hamas, and insurgents in Iraq. Their influence in the region is huge.

But you're right about democracy. It is a two-edged sword in that a majority can elect an "unsavory" government that can then change all the rules and perpetuate its own existence (e.g., what Chavez is doing in Venezuela).

The larger question here (deserving another thread) is why militant Islam has become such a strong force in the Middle East? Their gaining control of the government and military in Pakistan would give them access to nuclear weapons. Bad! Very very bad!
 
Posts: 7539 | Location: Wichita, KS | Registered: 09 August 2001Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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From todays NY Times - Benazir Bhutto makes some very pertinent points in her piece:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11...=opinion&oref=slogin

quote:
It is dangerous to stand up to a military dictatorship, but more dangerous not to. The moment has come for the Western democracies to show us in their actions, and not just in their rhetoric, which side they are on.
 
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Comparison's to Iran in 1979:


http://www.washingtonpost.com/...ml?hpid=opinionsbox1

quote:
The shah was America's friend, just like Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf. He was our staunch ally against the bogeyman of that time, the Soviet Union, just as Musharraf has been America's partner in fighting al-Qaeda. The shah ignored America's admonitions to clean up his undemocratic regime, just as Musharraf has. And as the shah's troubles deepened, the United States hoped that moderate opposition leaders would keep the country safe from Muslim zealots, just as we are now hoping in Pakistan.


And yet the Iranian explosion came -- a firestorm of rage that immolated any attempt at moderation or compromise. A similar process of upheaval has begun in Pakistan -- with one terrifying difference: Pakistan has nuclear weapons
 
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Good articles pointing out relevant parallels.

Unfortunately, I don't think there's much the U.S. can do at this point that will make much difference. One can only hope that moderate influences will prevail.
 
Posts: 7539 | Location: Wichita, KS | Registered: 09 August 2001Reply With QuoteReport This Post
<HeartPrayer>
Posted
Differences more striking than the parallels
----------------------------------------------------

There is also a key difference that is overlooked...

The strength and speed of the uprising against Shah Reza Pahlavi in Iran came as a surprise to Western pundits.

Why? Ayatollah Khomenei caught even the sophisticated American intelligence community unaware -- by essentially passing under their radar.

How? By going low-tech. According to what I have read, the Ayatollah recorded audio cassettes in his home in exile in France. These were smuggled into Iran by those faithful to him, duplicated, and played in the mosques. The CIA, not having agents in that arena, hadn�t a clue to what was really going on.

All the sudden there were a million people in the streets!!

For the record, Shah Reza Pahlavi�s great regret is not calling on the armed forces to confront them!

After the ouster of the Shah, of course, Ayatollah Khomenei consolidated his power -- at the expense of the moderates.


PS. As far as Bhutto and her husband go, I think the most accurate description is corrupt opportunists. For some bizarre reason, the West tends to de-emphasise such pertinent details.

Here there truly is a parallel to Iran -- to Rafsanjani and his family. Mistakenly emphasised as a moderate by Western politicians and Western news media (rather than as a thoroughly corrupt politician), he lost to Ahmadinejad.

The latter can be accused of many things, but corruption is not one of them.
 
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Pakistani police placed opposition leader Benazir Bhutto under house arrest Friday, uncoiling barbed wire in front of her Islamabad home and reportedly rounding up 5,000 of her supporters to block a mass protest against emergency rule.

Bhutto tried twice to leave by car but was blocked by police after a scuffle with her supporters who tried to remove a barricade. The former prime minister had planned to address a rally in nearby Rawalpindi, defying a ban on public gatherings.


http://apnews.myway.com/articl...71109/D8SQ50I83.html
 
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ISLAMABAD, Pakistan � Pakistan opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, who was placed under house arrest Friday after a tense standoff with police, was free to leave, government officials told FOX News.

Pakistan's police earlier had uncoiled barbed wire in front of her Islamabad villa and reportedly rounded up thousands of her supporters to block a mass protest against President Gen. Pervez Musharraf's emergency rule.

� FOX News Exclusive: Greta Van Susteren Speaks With Bhutto

Bhutto twice tried to leave in her car, telling police: "Do not raise hands on women. You are Muslims. This is un-Islamic." They responded by blocking her way with an armored vehicle.
 
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Here's a pretty good analysis by Mark Steyn regarding the current leadership situation in Pakistan. :

http://www.nysun.com/article/66295

quote:
.......confident believers in the usual dreary pendulum of Pakistani politics � corrupt democrats, followed by authoritarian generals, followed by corrupt democrats � overlook how profoundly the country's changed. Its political dynamic has a new player: Islamism. Miss Bhutto says, oh, don't worry about that, it's a lot of hooey got up by Musharraf to persuade Washington to prop him up for another half-decade.

Really? Pakistan is both a nuclear power and a nation that cannot enforce sovereignty over significant chunks of its territory. Large tracts are run by the Taliban. The organization responsible for perpetrating the bloodiest assault ever on the U.S. mainland is holed up there and all but untouchable. The air routes between Karachi and Heathrow, Birmingham, Manchester and Glasgow are the vital conduit between the jihad's ideological redoubts and the wider world. What do the perpetrators of the Daniel Pearl beheading and the London Tube bombing and the thwarted martyrs of innumerable other plots all have in common? Pakistan. Fritz Gelowicz, arrested a few weeks ago in Europe, is an ethnic German who converted to Islam and graduated from a Pakistani terrorist camp. Unlike Britain and Canada, Germany has no longer-standing imperial ties with Pakistan, yet a ramshackle economically inconsequential basket-case of a state now has ideological converts in almost every corner of the world. Mohammed Umer Farooq is a conventional first-generation moderate immigrant to the west who serves happily as pharmacist at the Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry base in Alberta. By contrast, his daughter Nada Farooq says she "hates Canada" and was involved in a plot to behead the Prime Minister. In North America, Britain, Scandinavia, Australia and Pakistan itself, elderly grandparents who practice the Indian sub-continent's traditional Sufi Islam have seen their grandchildren embrace hardline Deobandi Islam, essentially a local variant of Wahhabism � and then sell its virtues to pasty-faced white blokes with names like Fritz. The Bhuttos and their sometime rivals, sometime allies of convenience the Sharifs couldn't run the country competently before it got hollowed out by the radicals. But the experts assure us they're now the answer to the woes of a nuclear powder keg.

 
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<HeartPrayer>
Posted
quote:
Originally posted by AMH v2.0:
[Here's a pretty good analysis by Mark Steyn regarding the current leadership situation in Pakistan. :
quote:
...Pakistan is both a nuclear power and a nation that cannot enforce sovereignty over significant chunks of its territory. Large tracts are run by the Taliban. The organization responsible for perpetrating the bloodiest assault ever on the U.S. mainland is holed up there and all but untouchable...
This is, indeed, problematic. But in the Middle East the primary loyalty is often to the Tribe, and not the Nation-State. We see it in Pakistan, in Afghanistan, and in other countries.

As far as I am aware, no Pakistani head-of-state has really tried to exercise sovereignty in the so-called Tribal Areas (Waziristan et al) or try to disarm the "local authorities". They don�t dare.

No comparison, of course, but I just had a thought -- I wonder what would happen in the USA if the federal government tried to disarm the militias and fringe groups...
 
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quote:
No comparison, of course, but I just had a thought -- I wonder what would happen in the USA if the federal government tried to disarm the militias and fringe groups...
This is usually what happens:
http://www.answers.com/topic/david-koresh

------------
 
Posts: 417 | Registered: 17 October 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
<HeartPrayer>
Posted
Was Pakistan really behind it?
------------------------------------

I woke up with a shock today. The main story on the website of Dagbladet.no is that Pakistani intelligence was behind the attack on Hotel Serena.

For those who may not remember, this was an assassination attempt on Afghani Hamid Karzai on 27 April, during a military parade. Collateral damage was eight lives, including Dagbladet�s journalisth Carsten Thomassen and an American.

At a press conference yesterday, Sayeed Ansari, the spokesman of the Afghani intelligence agency (ISI), claimed that they had proof of a direct link between the assassin and Pakistan�s intelligence service.

Proof supposedly includes the assassin�s mobile phone records.

Pakistan has yet to respond! Before dismissing the accusation altogether, please remember that ISI were the people who helped bring us Taleban.
 
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Very sobering, HP. It will be interesting to see how that unfolds.
 
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