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PIIGS in a sty
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Posted
see http://www.globalpost.com/disp...union-greece-economy

Storm clouds gather . . . the Great Recession v. 2.0 looms heavy on the horizon and it seems there's no easy way out.

If you're an investor, keep a close eye on this one. A few good hedges are to be found in three ETFs:
- UUP - US dollar, bullish
- EUO - shorts the Euro
- GLD - lets you buy 1/10 oz. gold per share as you would stocks.

What's the word across the pond, HP?
 
Posts: 1491 | Location: Wichita, KS | Registered: 27 December 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Looks like the EU will be bailing out Greece.
- http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...087&sid=aqUKEXajkSzk

How long will that last? And what of the others?

Stay tuned.
 
Posts: 1491 | Location: Wichita, KS | Registered: 27 December 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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$150b divided by 300m people in Europe means that everyone on the continent -- man, woman, and child -- is lending $500 to the Greeks. Historically, countries would only borrow money during times of war. During the peace that followed, they'd pay it back. Now governments everywhere are addicted to debt-fueled spending during peacetime. It's an accident waiting to happen.
 
Posts: 347 | Location: Canada | Registered: 03 April 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Yes, that's a lot of money per person, and it's not the end, by any means. I doubt this will suffice for Greece. Then there are the other countries mentioned above.

Since my initial post on this topic, the stock market has fallen almost 5% and I'm not seeing anything to reassure investors that "all is well." The U.S. seems to have turned the corner on its problems, but without European money to purchase our exports, we will be hurt as well.
 
Posts: 1491 | Location: Wichita, KS | Registered: 27 December 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Very informative. . .
- http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6444DM20100505

More and more it seems the Euro is doomed. But what happens if the Euro tanks? Countries would revert to their own currencies and currency exchanges would again become quite common in Europe. Maybe not the end of the world, but very chaotic for awhile.
 
Posts: 1491 | Location: Wichita, KS | Registered: 27 December 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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From that article: "The European Commission is to propose a permanent mechanism for handling such crises on May 12, possibly drawing on a German proposal for a European Monetary Fund." That's like helping an alcoholic to their feet so they can go back to the bar for another drink.

The austerity measures have provoked deaths on the streets of Athens. But when you look at the details of the "austerity" package, the Greeks aren't actually going to pay back any of their debt. They're simply going to slow the rate at which the debt increases. By 2014 they will "only" be increasing their debt by 3% of GDP each year:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/10099143.stm

I don't know if the Euro is doomed (short term), but the U.S. dollar doesn't look like much of an alternative -- 10% unemployment, 10% deficits, and low interest rates.
 
Posts: 347 | Location: Canada | Registered: 03 April 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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The dollar has actually been gaining strength against other world currencies. It's also the international reserve fund so it'll be around a long time because of that -- unless the Chinese get their way and some other, new international currency is created and adopted.

It's that 10% deficit is the U.S. that is most worrisome for the dollar, as the "solution" will surely involve inflation and higher interest rates, probably a short ways down the road.

The biggest problem in all of this is governments over-spending to fund growing social programs of all kinds. It's nearly impossible to take those away once they're funded; the people don't much like it (e.g., the riots in Greece), and they don't seem to care much if the country goes broke, so long as the goodies keep coming. (Where's Brad for an "Amen!" when you need one? Wink)
 
Posts: 1491 | Location: Wichita, KS | Registered: 27 December 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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You probably saw today's news that now Ireland is asking for a bailout, too.
 
Posts: 347 | Location: Canada | Registered: 03 April 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Yes, if Spain gets in big trouble, look out! Eeker
 
Posts: 1491 | Location: Wichita, KS | Registered: 27 December 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Well, the information I received from the BBC appears to have been wrong. Now they say Ireland is being pressured to ask for a bailout but is resisting.

They key indicators, to me, are the interest rates each country has to pay to service its debt. Irish and Portuguese bond rates have started to creep up these last few months, though they're still not at Greek levels. (No mentiont of Spain on this chart.)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11762500
 
Posts: 347 | Location: Canada | Registered: 03 April 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I just added some EUO again. This is an ETF that double-shorts the Euro. Might be good for a short run. I made about 15% on it earlier in the year.

I wonder why the UK is so stable? They've got a pile of debt, too -- same in the USA. Our day of reckoning is somewhere down the road, but it's coming.

Meanwhile, Canada . . . is in pretty good shape, no? Smiler
 
Posts: 1491 | Location: Wichita, KS | Registered: 27 December 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I looked at the table of public debt as a percentage of GDP on Wikipedia, and I can't see any reason (based on that metric alone) why the UK and Canada should be considered problem-free, whereas Ireland is a worry:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L...tates_by_public_debt

There must be other factors involved apart from public debt as a percentage of GDP. We would have to ask a bond trader what those factors are.

The chart of Irish ten-year bond rates on Bloomberg looks particularly worrisome for Ireland. Look at it climb:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND

The Irish 10-year bonds are now trading at an 8% yield.

The comparison for various countries' 10-year government bond yields:

Germany 2.3%

U.S. 2.6%

Canada 3.1%

Spain 4.6%

UK 4.8%

Portugal 6.8%

Ireland 8.0%

Greece 11.6%
 
Posts: 347 | Location: Canada | Registered: 03 April 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
There must be other factors involved apart from public debt as a percentage of GDP. We would have to ask a bond trader what those factors are.


From what I've read I think it's more about risk. No one really believes the U.S., Germany, Canada or U.K. is likely to default on repaying its debt. EU member nations can't devalue their currency by printing more to pay their debts, so that's why the PIIGS are in such trouble. Germany is in the EU, too, but they have a stronger economy. That's how I understand the discrepancies.
 
Posts: 1491 | Location: Wichita, KS | Registered: 27 December 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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This bailout (really a low-interest borrowing facility) for Ireland was supposed to fix things. Evidently the bond traders doubt that it will. Irish 10-year bonds are now paying an 8.9% yield, up from 8.0% just a week ago.

Germany 2.5%

U.S. 2.6%

Canada 3.1%

Spain 5.0%

UK 4.8%

Portugal 7.0%

Ireland 8.9%

Greece 12.0%

http://www.bloomberg.com/marke...nment-bonds/germany/

http://www.bloomberg.com/marke...government-bonds/us/

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...?ticker=GCAN10YR:IND

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...?ticker=GSPG10YR:IND

http://www.bloomberg.com/marke...government-bonds/uk/

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...?ticker=GSPT10YR:IND

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...?ticker=GGGB10YR:IND
 
Posts: 347 | Location: Canada | Registered: 03 April 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Irish 10 year bond yields are up to 9.2% today.

Clare, would you like us to organize a whip-round for you? Wink
 
Posts: 347 | Location: Canada | Registered: 03 April 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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This sort of thing always seems to happen when the day of reckoning arrives.
- http://www.guardian.co.uk/worl...demonstrators-dublin
 
Posts: 1491 | Location: Wichita, KS | Registered: 27 December 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I can understand why people see the austerity measures as unfair.

As I understand it, the reason Ireland needs all this cash is to recapitalize its banks, following their losses when the property bubble burst.

The banks' bad lending decisions have nothing to do with most people, yet the population as a whole is having to pay for them -- including such measures as reducing the minimum wage (bizarre!) and raising sales taxes from from 21% to 23%.
 
Posts: 347 | Location: Canada | Registered: 03 April 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Derek, here's a good article by Piotr Brzezinski that seems to be in line with your thinking on this. And Piotr also notes:

quote:
Moreover, it’s an opportunity for high-tax European states to level the playing field. Throughout the go-go late ’90s, the Celtic Tiger grew by 6 percent or more each year as low taxes — including a 12.5 percent corporate tax rate, which is among the lowest in Europe — attracted over 1,000 multinational companies, including Intel, Pfizer, Microsoft, and Google. (Wasteful EU subsidies to Ireland, meanwhile, mostly went into the shrinking agriculture sector, though some also went to building infrastructure in the rural west.)

For decades, these successful low-tax policies infuriated continental Europe, where politicians attacked Ireland’s “unfair competition.” Now, under the conditions of the bailout, middle-class Irish families will lose their tax credits and low-paid workers will be taxed. Also, as a French official has ominously remarked, the corporate tax “leaves room for progress.” France’s president, Nicolas Sarkozy was more direct: “Our Irish friends . . . have more room for maneuver than others, their taxes being lower than all the others.”


In a very real sense, the Irish bailout is about the creeping (and creepy) attempt to keep socialism ascendant in Europe.
 
Posts: 56 | Registered: 31 January 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by BradNelson:
In a very real sense, the Irish bailout is about the creeping (and creepy) attempt to keep socialism ascendant in Europe.


I'm not sure what you mean here, Brad.

The low corporate tax rate was designed to attract businesses.

Governments are pretty much obliged to bail out large banks because of the way banks accept deposits and create loans that are multiple times the size of their capital reserves. If a bank goes under, it not's like a single firm failing. A bank failure would take out an entire chunk of the economy.

Also, Ireland's problems are not due to years of excessive public spending. In fact, for over a decade the Irish were reducing public debt, not increasing it:

http://www.ntma.ie/NationalDebt/debtGDP.php
 
Posts: 347 | Location: Canada | Registered: 03 April 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I know the economic downturn has taken a heavy toll on European countries dependent on income from tourism. That surely includes most of the PIIGS countries. Unemployment in Spain was around 20% a few months ago. That's all bound to increase a government's deficit.

The hope seems to be that by lending these countries money and requiring them to undertake drastic austerity measures, they can ride it out until the economy turns up again and their bring in more tax money.
 
Posts: 1491 | Location: Wichita, KS | Registered: 27 December 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Derek, what that article by Brzezinski indicated is that part of the "bailout" is about reining in the more market-centric Ireland which gained an advantage on the other more socialist EU countries by offering a better business climate.
 
Posts: 56 | Registered: 31 January 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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The situation is deteriorating. Here's the 10-year bond yields from my last post and the yields today:

Portugal 7.0% -> 9.7%

Ireland 8.9% -> 11.0%

Greece 12.0% -> 16.7%

Spain 5.0% -> 5.4%
 
Posts: 347 | Location: Canada | Registered: 03 April 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Derek, that says it all. Spain might be OK in the long run, but their 20% unemployment is very bad for their economy.

I don't really know how to "play" all this in terms of investing. EUO shorts the Euro, and that's probably a safe bet, especially since the Euro has been so strong during the past few months. GLD is also good. But what happens if all these countries actually default on their loans, or keep needing to be propped up? Some banks somewhere will have to write that off, and that will set off a domino effect of failures and loan-tightening that will be similar to what happened in the Fall of 2008. This is all beginning to feel much the same.
- http://www.dailyfinance.com/20...is-is-far-from-over/

See also: http://www.morningstar.fr/fr/n...=97013&categoryid=13
quote:
The worst case scenario looks at a trillion euros of Europe’s money allocated towards financing sovereign debt, sovereign debt defaults or even the end of the common currency as we know it. In assessing the combination of short-term pressures from increasing minimum debt payments and interest charges with the longer-term burden of structural deficits, Zangana has six eurozone countries on his list of “troubled sovereigns.” To the usual suspects, Greece, Ireland and Portugal, he has added Spain, Italy and Belgium. The government debt due for refinancing between 2011 and 2018 of these six countries amounts to EUR 2.9 trillion – a bite on which the EFSF might easily choke, in Zangana’s view.

There has been much speculation that, faced with such a reality, one of the prime contributors to the EFSF, Germany, could be tempted to abandon its financial responsibilities and the eurozone altogether. Another possibility is that fiscal austerity measures and monetary tightening convince Southern European states to leave the euro. The third possibility Zangana outlined is that in the process of ensuring fiscal stability, the eurozone becomes more integrated, but individual member states shed more of their sovereignty.
 
Posts: 1491 | Location: Wichita, KS | Registered: 27 December 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I read an article about this yesterday on Yahoo News. Apparently Greek bonds have become illiquid. Banks holding them can't get rid of them (surprise!).

Interesting to me too is that, shortly after our last discussion, it was front page news that the problems had been "fixed." Or so we were told. Now the situation is clearly getting worse, yet so few people are talking about it. The issue is totally absent from the top news stories on the BBC website, for example.

I can see your domino theory makes sense, but I wouldn't be brave enough to start shorting European bank stocks right now.
 
Posts: 347 | Location: Canada | Registered: 03 April 2009Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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No, I wouldn't short European banks, either. What I was suggesting was to purchase a few shares of EUO, which shorts the Euro. That might be a profitable short-term play when bad news hits the fan.
 
Posts: 1491 | Location: Wichita, KS | Registered: 27 December 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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